Oscar Predictions: 2016 Edition

Anyone who has ever held a conversation with me for more than a couple of minutes or, like, passed me in a hallway at work in the middle of February, probably knows how important the Oscars are to me. That’s not to say that I value the opinion of the Academy. I used to. I used to think they were this wise counsel who knew what films were truly outstanding and deserving of arguably the most prestigious accolades in the film industry.

I… don’t think that anymore. I have been consistently disappointed year after year for nearly a decade. I vividly remember startling the woman next to me on the train when I learned that Despicable Me did not receive a nomination for Best Animated Feature in 2011. I was utterly incredulous. Or when Drive only received ONE NOMINATION. For sound editing. Or all of those times that Leo most definitely, probably should’ve won an Oscar and didn’t. Because The Academy are a bunch of bozos.

Point is, I lost faith in The Academy awhile ago. So, I’m going to tell you who I think should win, and who will most likely actually win. Here we go.

BEST PICTURE

  • The Big Short
  • Bridge of Spies
  • Brooklyn
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Room
  • Spotlight

I’ve seen 4 of these movies, but I can tell you that the closest race will be between 3 of them. Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, and Spotlight.

Should Win:  I fell recklessly in love with Mad Max: Fury Road. George Miller resurrected this franchise with aplomb. He put a bunch of dudes on big, spiky trucks adorned with drums and skulls and all kinds of other shit and had ’em drive around in Namibia. There was a guy, strapped to the front of one of the trucks, playing — ACTUALLY PLAYING — a guitar that was also a flamethrower! This is the type of film that reminds us of why we go to the movies.

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I would be delighted if Mad Max: Fury Road took the Best Picture win, but it’ll probably be…

Will Win: The Revenant. Now, that’s not to say that Revenant doesn’t deserve to win. It is visually impressive and most certainly “Oscar bait”, but there’s also some remarkable filmmaking happening here. Inarritu may become the first Director in history to take back-to-back Best Picture wins.

BEST ACTOR

  • Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
  • Matt Damon, The Martian
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
  • Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
  • Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Should Win: This category could be the biggest upset of the year. Naturally, you think it’s going to be Leo. Even though, in my own personal opinion, Tom Hardy probably should’ve gotten THIS nod instead of supporting. BUT WHAT DO I KNOW?

leoduh

Based on my Redmang status (see my Year in Review if you don’t know what that means) I would love to see Redmayne strut those feminine hips up on stage and regale us with some charming British speech in the moments before Leo DDTs him into next year where he’ll win another Oscar. I know in my heart of hearts who it will actually be. But that tucking scene, though. (See the movie if you don’t know what that means.)

Will Win: The obvious answer here is Leo. The Revenant is essentially a graphic depiction of how Leo has scraped and — at times — literally crawled his way to an Oscars win. My boyfriend seems to think it’s plausible, and even probable, that Leo will not win. And maybe he’s right. Maybe tucking your junk like Buffalo Bill is enough to put you ahead of a man who is basically having the shittiest camping trip of all time. But me? I’m going with Leo here.

BEST ACTRESS

  • Cate Blanchett, Carol
  • Brie Larson, Room
  • Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
  • Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
  • Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Should Win: I don’t have much to go on here, aside from the fact that everyone says Brie Larson was out of this world in Room. I haven’t seen the movie, but I’m going to try to before the Oscars. I don’t want Jennifer Lawrence to win. I’m in a place where I’m pretty over her. Saoirse Ronan was better on Stephen Colbert’s show than she was in Brooklyn, Cate Blanchett almost made me have a seizure in The Hobbit: The Battle of Five Armies, and I don’t know who Charlotte Rampling is.

Will Win:

it'sgonnabebrie

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Christian Bale, The Big Short
  • Tom Hardy, The Revenant
  • Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
  • Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
  • Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Should Win: I’m so torn up inside over this category. I want Mark Ruffalo to win. I do. More than that, though, I NEED Tom Hardy to win. I understood so many of the words he said in The Revenant. That’s huge! Mark Ruffalo was sublime in Spotlight, but Hardy knocked my socks off.

hardy

Will Win: This is anybody’s game. Bale already has, like, 23 Oscars. My boyfriend saw Creed and went on and on about how he was punching the staff on his way out after the movie and how he’s not allowed back at that theater. Something like that. Evidently it was phenomenal. So it could be Stallone, too. Ruffalo is obviously a front-runner for me personally and in life. And then there’s Mark Rylance! I don’t know who he is. What I can tell you is that the smart money is on Tom Hardy.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
  • Rooney Mara, Carol
  • Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
  • Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
  • Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Should Win: I didn’t see The Hateful Eight, but apparently Jennifer Jason Leigh should win for Broad Who Can Take A Punch.

Anyway, as much as I loved Rachel McAdams in Spotlight, Alicia Vikander made The Danish Girl better than it would’ve been without her. It was very much her story. I feel like Vikander is what’d you’d get if you mixed Audrey Hepburn and Jennifer Lawrence. She’s got style and finesse, but she’s also a little brassy and crass. And I dig it.

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Will Win: This is the type of thing where you’re kind of like, “I know who’s gonna win for sure.” and then on the night, they announce the winner, and you throw the cat through the TV. I have a strong feeling that Alicia Vikander will emerge victorious, but it could easily be any of the other women.

DIRECTING

  • Adam McKay – The Big Short
  • George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
  • Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant
  • Lenny Abrahamson – Room
  • Tom McCarthy – Spotlight

Should/Will/FUCKING BETTER win: George Miller. This is a group of absurdly talented dudes. If George Miller loses, which he won’t, it better be to Tom McCarthy. Because if he does lose, which won’t happen, I don’t want it to be to anybody else. That is the only acceptable alternate outcome that isn’t even necessary to talk about because George Miller is going to win.

2015-5-Feature-Mad-Max-George-Miller-set-WB

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

  • Anomalisa
  • Boy and the World
  • Inside Out
  • Shaun the Sheep Movie
  • When Marnie Was There

Should Win: I haven’t seen any of these. I’ve seen all of the trailers, though. Purely based on that, I’m gonna go with Anomalisa.

ANOMALISA

Will Win: Inside Out. Because it is a movie about feelings that hit everybody in the feels like a feely freight train.

COSTUME DESIGN

  • Carol
  • Cinderella
  • The Danish Girl
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Revenant

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Mad-Max-Fury-Road-Immortan-Joe

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road. Immortan Joe’s costume alone is enough to make me confident that this is going to be the winner. That and all of the little details. Jenny Beavan, the visionary behind The Doof Warrior (the guitar player) and his dirty red onesie pajama suit, is a shoo-in.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

  • Amy
  • Cartel Land
  • The Look of Silence
  • What Happened, Miss Simone?
  • Winter on Fire

Should Win/Will Win: I haven’t the foggiest. I’m going with Winter on Fire because it reminds me of Game of Thrones and I am counting down the days until it’s back.

16-bit-Game-of-Thrones-A-Song-of-Ice-and-Fire

 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

  • Body Team
  • Chau, Beyond the Lines
  • Claude Lanzmann
  • A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
  • Last Day of Freedom

Should Win/Will Win: I mean, I didn’t see any of these. For me to pretend I have any idea what I’m talking about would be ridiculous. A Girl in The River: The Price of Forgiveness is kinda jumping out at me though. I’m gonna go with that one. Final Answer.

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MAKEUP AND HAIR STYLING

  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Hundred-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
  • The Revenant

Should Win: The Hundred-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared. Because… what? I mean… WHAT?

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Will Win: The Revenant will win. You know how I know that? Because I really felt like I was looking at Leonardo DiCaprio’s insides after the bear attack.

ORIGINAL SONG

  • “Earned It” – Fifty Shades of Grey
  • “Manta Ray” – Racing Extinction
  • “Simple Song #3” – Youth
  • “Til It Happens to You” – The Hunting Ground
  • “Writing’s on the Wall” – Spectre

Should Win: As long as it isn’t Earned It, I don’t care.

Will Win: Earned It. Because The Academy hates me.

ANIMATED SHORT

  • Bear Story
  • Prologue
  • Sanjay’s Super Team
  • We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
  • World of Tomorrow

BEARSTORY1_0

I have no idea: I hope it’s Bear Story. And I hope Bear Story is a cartoon based on the POV of the bear from The Revenant.

LIVE ACTION SHORT

  • Shok
  • Stutterer
  • Everything Will Be Okay
  • Day One
  • Ave Maria

Uhh: Stutterer sounds interesting. Let’s go with that.

SOUND EDITING

  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • Sicario
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant

Should Win/Will Win: God, I hope it’s Mad Max. Hearing those drums just pounding away. Creeping up on you from a distance. I mean, it’ll probably be The Revenant, but how cool were those drums in Mad Max?

SOUND MIXING

  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • Bridge of Spies
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant

Maybs: Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

Probs: The Revenant.

FILM EDITING

  • The Big Short
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Revenant
  • Spotlight
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Fuggit: Spotlight.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

  • Embrace of the Serpent
  • Mustang
  • Son of Saul
  • Theeb
  • A War

Oh boy: Uh… Embrace of the Serpent? That sounds an Anaconda sequel.

ANACONDA: EMBRACE OF THE SERPENT.

ORIGINAL SCORE

Oh! My favorite category!

Howard Shore – Spotlight
Junkie XL – Mad Max: Fury Road
Ryuichi Sakamoto/Alva Noto/Bryce Dessner – The Revenant
John Williams – Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Ben Salisbury/Geoff Barrow – Ex_Machina

OH WAIT. THAT’S NOT THE LIST AT ALL. That’s just what it SHOULD’VE looked like. But, as I said before, BOZOS.

  • Bridge of Spies
  • Carol
  • The Hateful Eight
  • Sicario
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Who Cares: John Williams for Star Wars is the only acceptable winner here.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • Bridge of Spies
  • The Danish Girl
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Will Win: Probably The Revenant.

VISUAL EFFECTS

  • Ex Machina
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Ooh!: Ex_Machina!

ex-machina-movie-2015-cast

Will Win: Hopefully Ex_Machina!

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • The Big Short
  • Brooklyn
  • Carol
  • The Martian
  • Room

Matt Damon: The Martian. I haven’t seen it yet. I will before the big night because I always see all of the Best Picture nominees before the show. Evidently, people who’ve read the book say it’s pretty spot-on. I listen to my boyfriend when he tells me things. Mainly because sometimes he’s like, “I’ve heard the movie was adapted perfectly. You’re really pretty.” He didn’t say that second part right then, but I listened to the first part because I thought he might say that afterwards.

Where am I?

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Bridge of Spies
  • Ex Machina
  • Inside Out
  • Spotlight
  • Straight Outta Compton

Winner-Winner Chicken Dinner: I really want Ex_Machina to win. It stood out from the rest of the releases in 2015 and it is the only movie that was released last year in which Oscar Isaac dances. So.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Carol
  • The Hateful Eight
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Revenant
  • Sicario

The Revenant: The Revenant. All things considered, this movie was hands-down the most visually appeasing. Not only appeasing, but striking.

Welp, there you have it. My Oscar predictions. I used to love to compare and contrast with Ebert on these. Miss you, good sir. The Academy has only gotten worse since your departure. Don’t worry, I’m keeping these fools in check.

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